5-1Professional record7-2
← Dana White's Contender Series Season 10, Week 1Light Heavyweight · prelim
Mahamed Aly vs Alik Lorenz fight lab
RED CORNERMahamed Aly
Light HeavyweightFIGHT LAB
2026-08-11 · UFC APEX, Las Vegas
BLUE CORNERAlik Lorenz
MODEL PROJECTION · FILM-THIN
Mahamed Aly57.1%
- Sportsbook
- —
- Kalshi
- —
- Most likely finish
- Aly KO
- Charted fights
- 2 / 2
Inputs are video-derived: no official round stats exist for either fighter. The model was trained on official UFC data, so treat this as directional rather than calibrated. Reach is unavailable and was not imputed.
TALE OF THE TAPE
Records & schedule
Records from career histories; opponent quality measured bout by bout.
80%Wins by finish100%
—Avg opponent win rate—
Higher = tougher schedule—Wins over winning records—
—Amateur record—
4 / 0KO / sub wins6 / 1
—Sportsbook—
—Kalshi mid—
FILM STATS · VIDEO-DERIVED
What they actually do
Charted from their regional fights. Neither fighter has any official round data — no promotion outside the UFC publishes it — so this is the only measured record of their output, and it ranks below official stats.
5.57Sig. strikes landed / min5.48
51%Striking accuracy50%
0.76Sig. strikes absorbed / min3.83
Lower is better73%Striking defense43%
0.00Takedowns / 15 min0.00
4%Control time share20%
Sample: 2 charted fights for Mahamed Aly, 2 for Alik Lorenz. Rates from small samples move a lot — treat them as directional.
RED CORNER
Mahamed Aly
0 of 0 career fights charted from video · 5.57 landed/min, 51% accuracy
| Date | Opponent | Promotion | Film |
|---|
BLUE CORNER
Alik Lorenz
0 of 0 career fights charted from video · 5.48 landed/min, 50% accuracy
| Date | Opponent | Promotion | Film |
|---|
HOW IT TENDS TO GO
These two have finished 91.7% of their combined career wins. Across 356 Contender Series bouts only 41.0% end inside 7:30 overall — but among pairs who both arrive with finish rates above 85%, 75% did (16 bouts).
The projection above is built from these film rates, not from the finish-rate table — the table is context for how the show tends to play out.