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Free ML-Powered UFC Predictions

Free UFC predictions.Backed by data.

ML models trained on 8,500+ UFC fights predict decisions, knockouts, and survival props for every card. Free forever—no signup required.

Next Event
UFC London·Murphy vs. Evloev
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Fights Analyzed
0%
Model Accuracy
+0%
Max Edge ROI
Correct Calls
Islam Makhachevdef.Dustin PoirierSubmission87%UFC 302|
Alex Pereiradef.Jamahal HillKO/TKO72%UFC 300|
Dricus du Plessisdef.Sean StricklandDecision61%UFC 297|
Ilia Topuriadef.Alexander VolkanovskiKO/TKO64%UFC 298|
Tom Aspinalldef.Sergei PavlovichKO/TKO76%UFC 295|
Sean O'Malleydef.Marlon VeraDecision69%UFC 299|
Leon Edwardsdef.Colby CovingtonDecision83%UFC 296|
Max Hollowaydef.Justin GaethjeKO/TKO58%BMF Title|
Islam Makhachevdef.Dustin PoirierSubmission87%UFC 302|
Alex Pereiradef.Jamahal HillKO/TKO72%UFC 300|
Dricus du Plessisdef.Sean StricklandDecision61%UFC 297|
Ilia Topuriadef.Alexander VolkanovskiKO/TKO64%UFC 298|
Tom Aspinalldef.Sergei PavlovichKO/TKO76%UFC 295|
Sean O'Malleydef.Marlon VeraDecision69%UFC 299|
Leon Edwardsdef.Colby CovingtonDecision83%UFC 296|
Max Hollowaydef.Justin GaethjeKO/TKO58%BMF Title|
Next Card

Predictions go live before every card.

Decision, KO, and survival model outputs published for every fight on the upcoming UFC card. Check back before fight week.

See Upcoming Card
Model Performance

Three models. Profitable ROI.

Walk-forward validated on real sportsbook odds. No cherry-picking, no hindsight bias.

Decision Model

+15.5%
ROI

Over/under rounds & decision props

KO Model

+34.5%
ROI

KO/TKO finish & method props

Survival Model

+47.6%
ROI

ITD & distance props

Platform Features

Everything you need to find value.

ML predictions, fighter analytics, fight breakdowns, and live odds — all free, no account required.

ML Predictions

+15.5% ROI

Three specialized models — decision, KO, and survival — trained on 8,500+ UFC fights. Walk-forward validated with real historical odds to prove real-world performance.

DecisionKO/TKOSurvivalXGBoostLightGBMCatBoostRFELOGlicko-2TrueSkill

Fighter Database

4,455 fighters

Searchable database of 4,400+ UFC fighters with detailed stats, radar charts, ELO ratings, and historical records. Compare any two fighters side by side.

Fight Breakdowns

Weekly updates

Weekly deep-dive analysis for every upcoming card. Model outputs, stylistic matchup notes, and where the value lies — published before every event.

Live Odds Comparison

5 sportsbooks

Compare lines across DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, and BetRivers in real time. Find the best available price with direct links to each sportsbook.

How It Works

From data to winning bets.

Three steps. Zero guesswork. Our pipeline turns raw fight data into actionable, edge-driven predictions.

01

We analyze every fighter

Our models ingest 8,572+ fights worth of data — striking accuracy, grappling stats, cardio trends, camp changes, and 140+ features per matchup.

02

Our models find edges

10 ensemble ML models cross-reference fighter data against real-time odds from every major sportsbook. When the market is wrong, we know.

03

You bet with confidence

Get clear predictions, optimal bet sizing via Kelly criterion, and validated edges with 28–136% historical ROI. No guesswork — just math.

Live Dashboard Preview

Predictions you can act on.

Real-time ML predictions, best-available odds, and detected edges for every UFC event.

boutmetrics.com/dashboard
Latest PredictionsMain Card
Ensemble10 Models
Fighter
Model Probability
Fighter
HW ChampionshipVery High Confidence
Jon Jones
-355DK
0%
0%
Likely: Decision|Likely: KO/TKO
Tom Aspinall
FD+290
Edge: +12.4%
Individual Model Predictions
XGB
85%
LGB
72%
Cat
80%
RF
75%
SVM
78%
KNN
82%
Log
74%
ELO
79%
Gk2
76%
TS
77%
LW ChampionshipHigh Confidence
Islam Makhachev
-175MGM
Edge: +8.1%
0%
0%
Likely: Submission|Likely: Decision
Arman Tsarukyan
CZR+160
Individual Model Predictions
XGB
68%
LGB
62%
Cat
70%
RF
60%
SVM
65%
KNN
67%
Log
63%
ELO
66%
Gk2
64%
TS
65%
LHW ChampionshipMedium Confidence
Alex Pereira
-135FD
0%
0%
Likely: KO/TKO|Likely: Decision
Magomed Ankalaev
DK+125
Edge: +6.3%
Individual Model Predictions
XGB
62%
LGB
55%
Cat
60%
RF
53%
SVM
58%
KNN
61%
Log
56%
ELO
59%
Gk2
54%
TS
57%
Live predictions — updated every 60 seconds
Best odds highlighted across 6 sportsbooks
Track Record

Validated on real bets. Not just backtests.

Every prediction tracked against actual results. Walk-forward tested on out-of-sample data with real sportsbook odds.

0+
Validated Bets
Bets tracked across PPV and Fight Night cards
+0.0%
Combined ROI
Across decision, KO, and survival models
0 years
Walk-Forward Tested
Out-of-sample validation on real odds
Model Performance (ROI)
Decision Model(90 bets)
+15.5%

Over/under 2.5 rounds and fight decision props

KO Model(45 bets)
+34.5%

KO/TKO finish and method-of-victory props

Survival Model(32 bets)
+47.6%

Will the fight go the distance? ITD props

Model Calibration
Predicted %Actual %55%55%65%65%75%75%85%85%PerfectActual
Data Sources
ESPN
UFC
SHRD
TAPO
FMTC

Backtested across 8,572 fights since 1994. Verified with real historical odds from 131K+ records.

Compare odds across top sportsbooks